In a region where wars, geopolitical crises, trade and energy disruptions, and shifting balances of power intersect, Jordan’s economic experience merits an examination that goes beyond conventional indicators of growth, output, and income. Jordan did not emerge in an environment rich in natural resources, nor did it possess oil or gas surpluses that could provide broad fiscal space to absorb shocks. Over the past decades, it has also operated in a regional environment that offered little stability for pursuing a gradual development path free from disruptions. Nevertheless, Jordan has managed to maintain a considerable degree of monetary, fiscal, and institutional stability, continue developing its infrastructure, strengthen its human capital, and expand its economic and investment relations, making its economic resilience a phenomenon worthy of analysis and deeper understanding.
The distinctive feature of the Jordanian model lies in the fact that the national economy has faced, over the past years, a continuous test of the ability of small, open economies to adapt to a highly volatile environment. Since 2011, Jordan has confronted the repercussions of regional unrest, large inflows of refugees, disruptions to cross-border trade, and a slowdown in economic activity across several neighboring markets. It subsequently faced the shock of the COVID-19 pandemic, global inflationary waves, significant increases in interest rates, and geopolitical tensions that affected tourism, investment, and supply chains. Nevertheless, core economic institutions continued to function, the monetary system maintained its stability, and the economy succeeded in absorbing a significant share of these shocks.
International data indicate that the Jordanian economy recorded real growth of 2.5% in 2024, before growth increased to approximately 2.8% in 2025, according to estimates by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. The IMF expects growth to reach approximately 2.7% in 2026 amid continued regional pressures. Inflation also remained relatively low, averaging approximately 1.8% in 2025, a figure that reflects the ability of monetary policy to contain price pressures in an economy that relies heavily on imported energy and is exposed to global energy and food prices.
It is important to distinguish between economic resilience and the achievement of prosperity. Economic stability does not necessarily mean that growth rates have reached sufficient levels, that unemployment has declined to comfortable levels, or that real incomes have risen in line with society’s aspirations. Rather, it means that the state has succeeded in protecting the foundations that enable the economy to continue operating and adapting under difficult circumstances. This distinction gives the Jordanian experience its deeper significance. Its principal achievement has been to avoid major economic disruptions, preserve monetary and banking confidence, and establish the conditions for transitioning from an economy focused on managing crises to one seeking to build new engines of growth.
Monetary stability has been one of the most important strategic assets Jordan has accumulated over the past decades. The peg of the Jordanian dinar to the US dollar, the maintenance of strong foreign exchange reserves, and the soundness of the banking system have all represented fundamental elements in supporting confidence in the national economy. The International Monetary Fund noted that gross usable foreign reserves stood at approximately $20.3 billion at the end of 2024, before rising to around $25.4 billion in 2025, according to its latest assessments. It is important to note, however, that a significant portion of the recent increase was associated with unrealized valuation gains on gold holdings, which calls for examining the composition of reserves rather than focusing solely on their aggregate size.
The importance of monetary stability extends beyond maintaining a stable exchange rate. It provides investors and businesses with greater certainty in planning, limits currency volatility risks, helps protect purchasing power, and strengthens the economy’s ability to meet its external obligations, particularly in a country that relies on trade, remittances, tourism, and foreign investment. The resilience of the banking sector, together with its strong liquidity and capitalization levels, has also contributed to maintaining financial market stability during periods marked by heightened regional and international risks.
However, an understanding of Jordan’s resilience cannot be based on monetary policy alone. It is also linked to the nature of the state, the strength of its institutions, and its ability to maintain continuity in public decision-making within a turbulent regional environment. In this context, His Majesty King Abdullah II has played a significant role in presenting Jordan to the international community as a stable country with a strategic location and the capacity to build long-term partnerships. Jordan’s diplomatic engagement has helped maintain the Kingdom’s presence in international and regional forums, link political and security stability with opportunities for economic cooperation and investment, and promote Jordan as a connecting point between the markets of the Levant, the Gulf, and Europe, as well as a platform from which international companies and institutions can access regional markets.
This role should not be viewed as a protocol-driven activity separate from the economy. Countries with limited resources and small populations cannot attract investment on the basis of market size alone. They need to establish a comprehensive profile encompassing the business environment, regulatory stability, security, institutional capacity, access to external markets, and political reliability. Jordan’s international presence has helped reinforce this profile and keep the Kingdom on the map of international economic and financial partnerships, particularly during periods of profound regional change that heightened the risks facing investors.
At the same time, investment in infrastructure was not merely a limited technical choice; it formed part of the process of building national economic capacity. Roads, airports, ports, telecommunications, energy, and water networks constitute the foundation upon which the economy’s productive and trading capabilities, as well as its ability to attract capital, depend. The Port of Aqaba holds particular importance as the Kingdom’s principal maritime gateway and as a potential hub for regional trade, reconstruction, and the reshaping of supply chains, especially when combined with improvements in logistics services, customs procedures, industrial zones, and storage capacity.
The value of geographical location increases substantially when it is supported by institutional and logistical infrastructure and the ability to deliver efficient services. Location alone does not create a competitive advantage unless it is backed by efficient ports, secure roads, flexible customs procedures, financial and insurance services, and industrial and logistics zones capable of accommodating economic activity. Accordingly, Jordan’s strategic focus should be directed toward transforming the Kingdom into a hub for storage, re-exports, engineering services, maintenance, manufacturing, and digital services, thereby turning geography from a fixed factor into a source of evolving economic value.
One of the most notable structural transformations Jordan has experienced in recent years has been the rapid development of its energy sector. Historically, the Kingdom was highly vulnerable to fluctuations in oil and gas prices due to its heavy reliance on imports, with resulting pressures on the current account, production costs, and public finances. However, the contribution of renewable energy projects to the electricity generation mix increased from approximately 0.5% in 2014 to around 26.9% at the end of 2024, according to the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. Meanwhile, the installed capacity of renewable energy projects connected to the grid reached approximately 2.84 gigawatts. This represents a significant transformation in an economy whose energy security has long been closely tied to external market fluctuations.
This transformation offers Jordan an opportunity to reduce its exposure to energy shocks, improve the competitiveness of certain productive sectors, and develop new investments in energy efficiency, electricity storage, green industries, and green hydrogen. However, fully realizing these opportunities requires modernizing regulatory and financing frameworks, upgrading transmission and distribution networks, and aligning renewable energy projects with the needs of industry, water, and transport, so that clean energy can evolve from a sector-specific achievement into a driver of economic growth.
The industrial sector is also one of the key components in building an economy with a greater capacity to generate added value. Jordan has developed an industrial base in pharmaceuticals, chemicals, fertilizers, mining, and food processing. These sectors provide the economy with a degree of export capacity and access to external markets, reduce reliance on services alone, and demonstrate the importance of human capital, knowledge, and compliance with technical standards in building a competitive advantage within an economy with limited natural resources. Economic value can emerge from the ability to develop and process raw materials and market them through production chains that generate higher value.
In this context, human capital assumes a central role in the Jordanian experience. Education, universities, vocational training, and medical, engineering, and technological capabilities have constituted some of the Kingdom’s most important sources of economic strength. The presence of Jordanian professionals in Arab and international markets has also contributed to strengthening remittance flows, expertise, and trade relations. Remittances to Jordan amounted to approximately 8% of GDP in 2024, according to World Bank data, illustrating the economic significance of this external channel and underscoring the importance of aligning education and training with the needs of export-oriented sectors, such as healthcare, education, information technology, and professional services.
Nevertheless, a balanced assessment of Jordan’s economic trajectory highlights the importance of continuing efforts to address a number of structural challenges, particularly unemployment, limited natural resources, and water scarcity. The World Bank indicated that the unemployment rate among Jordanians stood at approximately 21.4% in the third quarter of 2025. These indicators reveal that the greatest challenge lies not only in expanding output, but also in the ability of growth to generate productive employment and integrate broader segments of the population into economic activity.
Public debt is another central issue in strengthening the sustainability of Jordan’s public finances. It therefore requires continued management through a gradual approach that balances fiscal consolidation with the needs of growth and development. According to IMF data, government debt, net of Social Security Corporation holdings, stood at approximately 83.6% of GDP in 2025, with expectations that this ratio will decline to around 79.9% by 2028 as part of a gradual fiscal consolidation program.
The significance of this trajectory extends beyond reducing debt indicators. It also involves strengthening the capacity of public finances to absorb future shocks, expanding the fiscal space available for development and investment spending, and preserving priority social expenditure. This underscores the importance of continuing to improve spending efficiency, enhance revenue mobilization, strengthen the efficiency of public utilities, and link fiscal reform to the promotion of investment, growth, and job creation, ensuring that debt-reduction efforts contribute to consolidating economic stability and supporting long-term development prospects.
This is where the importance of the Economic Modernization Vision 2033 comes into focus. The vision is expected to shift the center of gravity from managing stability toward building an economy driven by investment, production, exports, and productivity. Its success should not be measured by the number of initiatives or the scale of announced projects, but by its ability to transform the structure of the economy, broaden the base of export-oriented sectors, improve labor and capital productivity, create stable employment opportunities, strengthen the role of the private sector, and link spending on infrastructure, education, and technology to measurable economic returns. Jordan’s fundamental challenge lies in transforming the stability it has achieved into faster, more inclusive growth capable of improving living standards.
The Jordanian experience offers an economic model that reflects the importance of sound resource management, institution-building, investment in human capital, and leveraging geographical location and international relations to support development. Jordan has succeeded in establishing an economic foundation that has largely maintained its continuity amid volatile regional conditions and has accumulated a range of assets that could provide a basis for a new phase of economic transformation. Building on these achievements will depend on advancing economic reforms, strengthening institutional efficiency, and establishing clear development priorities in a manner that creates stronger links between investment, growth, and job creation.
Ultimately, the true value of the Jordanian model lies in demonstrating that a degree of stability and resilience can be built within an exceptionally complex environment, and that political and diplomatic engagement, infrastructure, human capital, and monetary stability can be transformed into assets capable of laying the foundations for a more productive and competitive economy. The next challenge is to move from an economy that has successfully weathered the storms to one capable of capitalizing on the post-storm period, transforming accumulated confidence into jobs, investments, exports, and tangible improvements in the lives of citizens.
